{"id":862,"date":"2020-07-01T17:22:42","date_gmt":"2020-07-02T00:22:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/reallycorrect.com\/ReallyCorrectWp1\/?page_id=862"},"modified":"2020-08-31T22:16:31","modified_gmt":"2020-09-01T05:16:31","slug":"covid-19-epidemic-risk-management","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/reallycorrect.com\/ReallyCorrectWp1\/covid-19-epidemic-risk-management\/","title":{"rendered":"Epidemic Risk Management Methodologies"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Partial List Of Epidemic Risk Management Methodologies<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><strong>Isolate High-Risk Population And Minimize Infection Window Period<\/strong><br>Minimize the period where infection is actively spreading and isolate high-risk population during that time.<\/li><li><strong>Complete Containment<\/strong><br>Use all available means in attempt to create virtually zero viral transmission<\/li><li><strong>Delay Until Treatment Options Improve<\/strong><br>Apply Safety Protocols while preparing treatment best practices<\/li><li><strong>Delay Until Vaccine Available<\/strong><br>Apply Safety Protocols until vaccine becomes available<\/li><li><strong>Ensure Medical Facility Availability<\/strong><br>Modulate Safety Protocols as needed to ensure medical facility availability<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Each of the various Epidemic Risk Management Methodologies have differing trade-offs. The sections that follow identify and define the various methodologies. Some areas which are impacted differently by different methodologies include:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Sickness and death of high-risk population<\/li><li>Sickness and death of low-risk population (by definition, low-risk population rarely experiences high-severity or death)<\/li><li>Economic impact (business, personal income, supplier payments, housing \/ rent, etc.)<\/li><li>Social health impact (relationships \/ family, recreation, elderly relationships, suicide, etc.)<\/li><li>Social structure impact (government, constitutional crises, social unrest, riots, crime, murder)<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"Minimize-Infection-Window-Period\"><a href=\"#Minimize-Infection-Window-Period\" data-type=\"internal\" data-id=\"#Minimize-Infection-Window-Period\">Minimize Infection Window Period<\/a><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Minimize The Time Period That The Infection Is Rapidly Spreading.<\/strong> This approach can minimize the impact on high-risk populations as the infection probability window is reduced in time. In this approach, the high-risk population remains strongly isolated while the low-risk population continues day to day activity; keeping economic and social structures largely intact. As a result, many of the low-risk population are more likely to become infected much more rapidly than if the low-risk population follows safety-protocols. The low-risk population becomes infected, recovers, and gains whatever <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/reallycorrect.com\/ReallyCorrectWp1\/immunology-vaccines-viral-loads-symptom-severity-and-immunity\/\" target=\"_blank\">immunity <\/a>may be associated with their immune system having acted to recover from the initial infection. At some point enough of the low-risk population completes the cycle such that the virus no longer can find hosts in which to replicate and the virus then largely ceases to exist. Any remnants on surfaces eventually become inactivated by UV, heat, and other naturally occurring activity and\/or intentional cleaning activity. After the virus is virtually removed from circulation, the high-risk population can safely emerge from isolation. It is often important to also<a href=\"#Ensure-Medical-Facility-Availability\" data-type=\"internal\" data-id=\"#Ensure-Medical-Facility-Availability\"> ensure medical facility availability.<br><\/a><br>Additionally, studies have demonstrated that low viral load exposures caused people to develop increased immunity levels without becoming significantly sick \u2013 they \u201c<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/pmc\/articles\/PMC4342672\/\" target=\"_blank\">seroconverted while having minimal clinical illness and no shedding<\/a>\u201c.<br><br>Since the low-risk population completes this cycle rapidly, the high-risk population has a smaller time window in which it must remain isolated. Also, <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/reallycorrect.com\/ReallyCorrectWp1\/immunology-vaccines-viral-loads-symptom-severity-and-immunity\/\" target=\"_blank\">for those who have recovered, immune response to re-exposures are more rapid the closer that re-exposure is to the time when recovery occurred; which further limits transmission probability<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/reallycorrect.com\/ReallyCorrectWp1\/covid-19-government-overreach\/\" target=\"_blank\">economic, social health, and social structure impacts<\/a> tend to be very low for the vast majority of the population.<br><br>This process is built upon the idea that individuals who cannot be infected are not good hosts for the virus and do not enable the virus to replicate and therefore do not shed viruses. It has been shown that <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/cid\/article\/52\/7\/911\/299077\" target=\"_blank\">&#8220;The greater the proportion of immune individuals in a community, the smaller the probability that non-immune individuals will come into contact with an infectious individual, helping to shield non-immune individuals from infection.&#8221;<\/a><br><br>While those caring for uninfected high-risk populations may be able to isolate themselves, forgo normal social activities, and remain dedicated to protecting their high-risk family and clients \/ patients, they will eventually compromise or make errors that expose themselves to infection, thus exposing the high-risk group. Minimizing the infection window period minimizes the chance of human error and helps those caring for high-risk populations get back to normal life sooner.<br><br>Some people refer to this concept as &#8220;Herd Immunity&#8221; but that term can have <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/cid\/article\/52\/7\/911\/299077\" target=\"_blank\">multiple definitions<\/a>. One definition is &#8220;virtual eradication&#8221;. Another definition views <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Herd_immunity\" target=\"_blank\">Herd Immunity<\/a> as an analog phenomenon where more immune help protect those not immune on a variable scale such that every person that gains immunity reduces the probability that others will become exposed. Also, when considering concepts of herd-immunity, it is important to recognize that a percentage of the population is low risk for exposure and transmission due to &#8220;reclusive&#8221; social habits. It has been observed that <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/pos.org\/im-a-happy-homebody-and-so-are-many-americans\/\" data-type=\"URL\" data-id=\"https:\/\/pos.org\/im-a-happy-homebody-and-so-are-many-americans\/\" target=\"_blank\">in recent decades, there has been a trend toward significantly lower social interaction. The largely-isolated population, which may be on the order of 30%,<\/a> could be directly subtracted from the total population for use in herd-immunity calculations. For example, if 20% of the population was found to be immune, the herd-immunity level, when adding 30% &#8220;homebodies&#8221;, may result in an effective herd-immunity on the order of 50%. During a pandemic, fear may even increase the socially isolated population.<br><br>Diseases with extremely high consequences, <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Sequela\" target=\"_blank\">sequelae<\/a>, and fatality rates require virtual eradication to protect the population. Diseases with extremely low consequences require no special care except that which minimizes the inconvenience of being sick. Diseases with consequences between these extremes need commensurate risk management protocols, and thus are managed on an analog scale rather than extreme prevention measures or zero measures to prevent transmission. This approach of &#8220;natural immunity&#8221; is perhaps obviously not favorable with diseases of high-consequences to a large population percentage. That threshold is a subjective decision that must be balanced against other societal factors.<br><br>For example, measles has been stated to have a Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) of 15% and neurological damage rate of 25%. It is understandable why this may create a desire for complete eradication. The average Seasonal Flu has a IFR of about 0.1% (in some years as high as 0.3%) and is generally considered survivable to most of the general population; vaccines have been partially effective at reducing seasonal flu and it is generally considered as not requiring eradication though some segments continue to push for perfect vaccines. As of June 2020, the CDC models COVID-19 with a 0.4% Infection Fatality Rate. Significant sequelae for COVID-19 have been found in hospitalized patients, particularly those who were placed in <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/reallycorrect.com\/ReallyCorrectWp1\/excessive-intubation\/\" target=\"_blank\">invasive ventilation (intubation)<\/a>. However, the vast majority of mild-cases, especially those unreported, are not presenting any significant sequelae as it would be expected that the <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/reallycorrect.com\/ReallyCorrectWp1\/covid-19-daily-reporting-is-misleading\/#16-to-27-Million\" target=\"_blank\">tens of millions US recovered population<\/a> to be seeking medical attention if sequelae following mild cases were common-place.<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"Complete-Containment\">Complete Containment<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Use All Available Means In Attempt To Create Virtually Zero Viral Transmission.<\/strong> This option can rarely achieve sufficient isolation to halt an epidemic. When a geographic area can be fully isolated until the geographic areas with active infections drop to virtual zero, this may be possible. The group not being infected will gain no immunity to the pathogen or any immunologically similar future mutations. The uninfected group will have virtually no casualties or impact from the virus itself during the period where the virus does not enter that group. Future infection is likely after containment ends. Often, complete containment results in an outbreak that is deferred rather than avoided. Additionally, <em>attempts to contain an outbreak can also inhibit repeat exposure to those who have already recovered; thus negatively impacting their long-term immunity<\/em>. <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/reallycorrect.com\/ReallyCorrectWp1\/immunology-vaccines-viral-loads-symptom-severity-and-immunity\/\" target=\"_blank\">Repeat exposure is known to often result in both stronger and longer immunity<\/a>. The <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/reallycorrect.com\/ReallyCorrectWp1\/covid-19-government-overreach\/\" target=\"_blank\">economic, social health, and social structure impacts<\/a> tend to be very high and may have multi-year, and potentially permanent, effects.<br><br>Highly infectious pathogens, such as SARS-CoV-2, rarely can be contained, only slowed. Attempting to completely contain SARS-CoV-2 with current technology in the US and many other countries has proven to be a <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Fool%27s_errand\" target=\"_blank\">fool&#8217;s errand<\/a>. Many other pathogens such as the common-cold (<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.webmd.com\/cold-and-flu\/cold-guide\/common_cold_causes\" target=\"_blank\">which is also a type of coronavirus<\/a>) are also too infectious to stop. Slowing spread and management are possible, but complete containment is rarely a realistic option for large land mass areas. Beginning in March 2020, virtual <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/COVID-19_pandemic_in_the_United_States#Lockdowns\" target=\"_blank\">COVID lockdowns began and continued for 1 to 3 months in various US states<\/a>. This shutdown failed to contain the outbreak which is believed to have <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/COVID-19_pandemic_in_the_United_States#Timeline\" target=\"_blank\">entered in the US in December 2019<\/a> or earlier when <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Timeline_of_the_COVID-19_pandemic\" target=\"_blank\">most countries were equally unaware of growing infection rates<\/a>. Some of the earliest reports of numerous cases in the US and Europe were linked to ski resorts with infection numbers far beyond many timelines in the links above. This suggests that COVID had been circulating <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.mtexpress.com\/news\/blaine_county\/outbreak-intensifies-in-blaine\/article_64997bda-6a50-11ea-bb12-ff092b3d58e4.html\" target=\"_blank\">within the US<\/a> and <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/smw.ch\/article\/doi\/smw.2020.20212\" target=\"_blank\">Europe<\/a> in January 2020 or earlier. It is likely that many skiers were at low-risk for severe cases and thought they had a flu in the months before COVID became common knowledge. Containment of pathogens that result in mostly non-severe, flu-like symptoms, is extremely challenging as the earliest infections tend to among the socially mobile, active, and low-risk for severe-case population; and thus tend to be unreported.<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"Delay-Until-Vaccine-Available\">Delay Until Vaccine Available<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Use All Available Means In Attempt To Create Virtually Zero Viral Transmission Until A Vaccine Is Available.<\/strong> The <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/reallycorrect.com\/ReallyCorrectWp1\/covid-19-government-overreach\/\" target=\"_blank\">economic, social health, and social structure impacts<\/a> tend to be very high and may have multi-year, and potentially permanent, effects.<br><br>If a vaccine is readily available, those willing to use it can reduce the infectable population. Without a vaccine, those at low-risk to severe complications might choose to take the risk of becoming infected, recovering, and gaining whatever immunity may be associated with their immune system having acted to recover from the initial infection which also can reduce the infectable population.<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"Delay-Until-Treatment-Options-Improve\">Delay Until Treatment Options Improve<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Use <strong>more aggressive Safety Protocols<\/strong> Until Treatment Options Stabilize.<\/strong> Depending upon the delay and severity of safety protocols, the <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/reallycorrect.com\/ReallyCorrectWp1\/covid-19-government-overreach\/\" target=\"_blank\">economic, social health, and social structure impacts<\/a> tend to be very high and may have multi-year, and potentially permanent, effects. This approach can attempt to find a balance between delay and improved treatment options.<br><br>During the first month of COVID-19 in the US, some treatment options were found to cause increase fatality rate. Two areas that were particularly problematic were <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/reallycorrect.com\/ReallyCorrectWp1\/excessive-intubation\/\" target=\"_blank\">premature use of invasive intubation ventilation and excessive ventilation pressure<\/a>. Other treatment problems currently under investigation included <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/reallycorrect.com\/ReallyCorrectWp1\/covid19-sars-cov-2-and-treatment\/\" target=\"_blank\">excess doses<\/a> of steroids and HCQ in severe patients &#8211; as use case for both of these therapeutics targeted low-dose and early use. Using more aggressive Safety Protocols can be helpful during the period where treatment options are being rapidly improved. Emphasis on <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/reallycorrect.com\/ReallyCorrectWp1\/covid19-sars-cov-2-and-treatment\/\" target=\"_blank\">transparency and sharing of treatment options<\/a> can increase the speed at which poor treatment approaches are eliminated.<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"Ensure-Medical-Facility-Availability\"><a href=\"#Ensure-Medical-Facility-Availability\" data-type=\"internal\" data-id=\"#Ensure-Medical-Facility-Availability\">Ensure Medical Facility Availability<\/a><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Use more aggressive Safety Protocols Only When Medical Facility Availability Is Threatened.<\/strong> This management approach seeks to model the epidemic and predict when medical facilities will become severely stressed and uses commensurate means to ensure medical facilities remain available. It also involves surge capacity planning that may include use of hospital ships, mobile facilities \/ RV&#8217;s, and ad-hoc tented triage areas. This approach is often a sub-component of other approaches. &#8220;<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/healthblog.uofmhealth.org\/wellness-prevention\/flattening-curve-for-covid-19-what-does-it-mean-and-how-can-you-help?fbclid=IwAR3z1PnV3bDp7T6JX3oedYVthWAmOvjcrOglDugT27sdWSqMEZYIV1qnNEQ\" target=\"_blank\">If individuals and communities take steps to slow the virus\u2019s spread, that means the number of cases of <strong>COVID-19 will stretch out across a longer period of time<\/strong>.<\/a>&#8220;. In any outbreak, there is likely an optimum time period where infections occur slowly enough that medical facilities are not overwhelmed but infections occur rapidly enough so as <a href=\"#Minimize-Infection-Window-Period\" data-type=\"internal\" data-id=\"#Minimize-Infection-Window-Period\">not to extend the outbreak time period<\/a>.<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Summary<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>All of this is an attempt to balance an equation. When listing the various options available, there exist different advantages and disadvantages for each option that might be selected. To evaluate the disadvantages of only one option does not enable the equation to be balanced. While enough data may exist to determine an optimal solution at this time, it is more likely that it may be necessary to take several approaches based on voluntary participation and freedom of individual choice &#8211; and then observe in retrospect the results of those competing choice selections. This may be the only way to obtain all of the data needed to make better choices in the future. This approach of informed personal liberty and discretion may also create opportunity for intuitive, common-sense, choices that are baked into human behavior that are not well documented or formalized in studies. As one anecdotal example of intuitive behavior, during early beach re-openings in California, it was observed that many kinship groups remained about 20 to 50 feet apart, even though a formal rule was 6 feet. This was observed along two separate 4-6 mile stretches of beaches in two different California counties &#8211; showing some clear, common, instinctive behavior among diverse groups outside of shared visual range. As more heavy-handed measures increased due to some small number of violations, there appeared to be a greater tendency for many groups to be larger and tighter in apparent defiance of the increased measures. Human psychology creates interesting interplay between intuition, data, and attempts at control.<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Reference Material<\/h3>\n\n\n<div class=\"vlp-link-container vlp-layout-basic wp-block-visual-link-preview-link\"><a href=\"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/cid\/article\/52\/7\/911\/299077\" class=\"vlp-link\" title=\"\u201cHerd Immunity\u201d: A Rough Guide\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><\/a><div class=\"vlp-layout-zone-side\"><div class=\"vlp-block-2 vlp-link-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/oup.silverchair-cdn.com\/oup\/backfile\/Content_public\/Journal\/cid\/Issue\/52\/7\/0\/m_cid52_7.cover.gif?Expires=1656649850&amp;Signature=0suroUfBm2goPIg0RdBadmBsP5M~7ddVh6izm~q61qV64UlCNaYpH0PlhYrG2Vi6NsJksWkQglhbyl~cYZmQCPExSh7grVeSyLvvPPwVvlEbsx0WLT0Uib8Ve92GlVIYW~gpjukuXQqtpCtvuLYcHwgTH2T0lkcnifjqgso-YYZGb7MsA2LwxF1kmHr--tlWufSuBgnToUcd8hRDCz~F2~a6aLkOeFDHCg0iLaVJ1vWWUJWCRjIQA95YcviwvHDTaA15uS-MMf~V1V5ZleWfub14uYGn0jNNyb~6ExBJCguj~LkGZeghiJmKlwyXgK~g8S2vh6In7s5kbPUHT9ne~A__&amp;Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA\" style=\"max-width: 150px; max-height: 150px\" \/><\/div><\/div><div class=\"vlp-layout-zone-main\"><div class=\"vlp-block-0 vlp-link-title\">\u201cHerd Immunity\u201d: A Rough Guide<\/div><div class=\"vlp-block-1 vlp-link-summary\">Abstract. The term \u201cherd immunity\u201d is widely used but carries a variety of meanings [1\u20137]. Some authors use it to describe the proportion immune among individu<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n<div class=\"vlp-link-container vlp-layout-basic wp-block-visual-link-preview-link\"><a href=\"https:\/\/pos.org\/im-a-happy-homebody-and-so-are-many-americans\/\" class=\"vlp-link\" title=\"I\u2019m a happy homebody, and so are many Americans.\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><\/a><div class=\"vlp-layout-zone-side\"><div class=\"vlp-block-2 vlp-link-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/pos.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/people.jpg\" style=\"max-width: 150px; max-height: 150px\" \/><\/div><\/div><div class=\"vlp-layout-zone-main\"><div class=\"vlp-block-0 vlp-link-title\">I\u2019m a happy homebody, and so are many Americans.<\/div><div class=\"vlp-block-1 vlp-link-summary\">On most weekdays, a coworker of mine enthusiastically asks me \u201cwhat are you doing tonight?\u201d. Usually my answer is quite dull, ranging from \u201claundry\u201d to \u201cI\u2019m behind on my shows\u201d with a smattering of \u201cI need to vacuum\u201d (note: I do have friends). Luckily for me, a little more than seven in ten American\u2026<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n<div class=\"vlp-link-container vlp-layout-basic wp-block-visual-link-preview-link\"><a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Herd_immunity\" class=\"vlp-link\" title=\"Herd immunity - Wikipedia\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><\/a><div class=\"vlp-layout-zone-side\"><div class=\"vlp-block-2 vlp-link-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/upload.wikimedia.org\/wikipedia\/commons\/thumb\/f\/f5\/Herd_immunity.svg\/1200px-Herd_immunity.svg.png\" style=\"max-width: 150px; max-height: 150px\" \/><\/div><\/div><div class=\"vlp-layout-zone-main\"><div class=\"vlp-block-0 vlp-link-title\">Herd immunity &#8211; Wikipedia<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n<div class=\"vlp-link-container vlp-layout-basic wp-block-visual-link-preview-link\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyreview.com\/2020\/03\/17\/905244\/what-is-herd-immunity-and-can-it-stop-the-coronavirus\/\" class=\"vlp-link\" title=\"What is herd immunity and can it stop the coronavirus?\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><\/a><div class=\"vlp-layout-zone-side\"><div class=\"vlp-block-2 vlp-link-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/wp.technologyreview.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/cropped-SA-GettyImages-1181760380-Print2_web.jpg?resize=1200,600\" style=\"max-width: 150px; max-height: 150px\" \/><\/div><\/div><div class=\"vlp-layout-zone-main\"><div class=\"vlp-block-0 vlp-link-title\">What is herd immunity and can it stop the coronavirus?<\/div><div class=\"vlp-block-1 vlp-link-summary\">Once enough people get Covid-19, it will stop spreading on its own. But the costs will be devastating.<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n<div class=\"vlp-link-container vlp-layout-basic wp-block-visual-link-preview-link\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.yahoo.com\/news\/swedish-epidemiology-boss-says-questioned-151219838.html\" class=\"vlp-link\" title=\"Swedish epidemiology boss says questioned COVID-19 strategy seems to be working\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><\/a><div class=\"vlp-layout-zone-side\"><div class=\"vlp-block-2 vlp-link-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s.yimg.com\/uu\/api\/res\/1.2\/jvcdUAn.2x1UfmQkaqBJMA--~B\/aD01MzM7dz04MDA7c209MTthcHBpZD15dGFjaHlvbg--\/https:\/\/media.zenfs.com\/en-US\/reuters.com\/d464251aa4b76a59cd7127f4511d3fd1\" style=\"max-width: 150px; max-height: 150px\" \/><\/div><\/div><div class=\"vlp-layout-zone-main\"><div class=\"vlp-block-0 vlp-link-title\">Swedish epidemiology boss says questioned COVID-19 strategy seems to be working<\/div><div class=\"vlp-block-1 vlp-link-summary\">Sweden\u2019s top epidemiologist said on Tuesday a rapid decline in new critical COVID-19 cases alongside slowing death rates indicated that Sweden\u2019s&#8230;<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n<div class=\"vlp-link-container vlp-layout-basic wp-block-visual-link-preview-link\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.kusi.com\/dr-scott-atlas-suggests-using-evidence-science-and-logic-when-making-coronavirus-regulations\/\" class=\"vlp-link\" title=\"Dr. Scott Atlas suggests using evidence, science and logic when making coronavirus regulations -\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><\/a><div class=\"vlp-layout-zone-side\"><div class=\"vlp-block-2 vlp-link-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/wpcdn.us-east-1.vip.tn-cloud.net\/www.kusi.com\/content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/dr-scott-atlas.png\" style=\"max-width: 150px; max-height: 150px\" \/><\/div><\/div><div class=\"vlp-layout-zone-main\"><div class=\"vlp-block-0 vlp-link-title\">Dr. Scott Atlas suggests using evidence, science and logic when making coronavirus regulations &#8211;<\/div><div class=\"vlp-block-1 vlp-link-summary\">SAN DIEGO (KUSI) \u2013 Dr. Scott Atlas,\u00a0Hoover Institution senior fellow, recently wrote an opinion piece bashing the latest coronavirus model. On Good Morning San Diego, Atlas explained that the lockdown and closures were done to \u201cflatten the curve,\u201d which has been done, but those decisions were also \u2026<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n<div class=\"vlp-link-container vlp-layout-basic wp-block-visual-link-preview-link\"><a href=\"https:\/\/podcasts.la.utexas.edu\/cepa\/podcast\/scott-atlas-covid-19-interview\/?utm_source=rss&amp;utm_medium=rss&amp;utm_campaign=scott-atlas-covid-19-interview\" class=\"vlp-link\" title=\"Scott Atlas \u2013\u00a0COVID-19 Interview\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><\/a><div class=\"vlp-layout-zone-side\"><div class=\"vlp-block-2 vlp-link-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/podcasts.la.utexas.edu\/cepa\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/21\/2020\/07\/scott-atlas-144x144.jpg\" style=\"max-width: 150px; max-height: 150px\" \/><\/div><\/div><div class=\"vlp-layout-zone-main\"><div class=\"vlp-block-0 vlp-link-title\">Scott Atlas \u2013\u00a0COVID-19 Interview<\/div><div class=\"vlp-block-1 vlp-link-summary\">Scott W. Atlas, M.D.is the Robert Wesson Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution of Stanford University and a Member of Hoover Institution\u2019s Working Group on Health Care Policy.<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n<div class=\"vlp-link-container vlp-layout-basic wp-block-visual-link-preview-link\"><a href=\"https:\/\/medicine.yale.edu\/news-article\/23446\/\" class=\"vlp-link\" title=\"COVID-19 Is Here. Now How Long Will It Last?\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><\/a><div class=\"vlp-layout-zone-side\"><div class=\"vlp-block-2 vlp-link-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ysm-res.cloudinary.com\/image\/upload\/c_limit,f_auto,h_630,q_auto,w_1200\/v1\/yms\/prod\/16cebc68-829a-471a-b398-d259e37c2bf9\" style=\"max-width: 150px; max-height: 150px\" \/><\/div><\/div><div class=\"vlp-layout-zone-main\"><div class=\"vlp-block-0 vlp-link-title\">COVID-19 Is Here. Now How Long Will It Last?<\/div><div class=\"vlp-block-1 vlp-link-summary\">COVID-19 Is Here. Now How Long Will It Last?<br \/>\nWith COVID-19 case numbers climbing dramatically in the United States and millions of people sheltered in their homes to help quell the outbreak, many are asking the obvious question: How long will all this last? Yale School of Public Health Associate Pr\u2026<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n<div class=\"vlp-link-container vlp-layout-basic wp-block-visual-link-preview-link\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.yahoo.com\/news\/coronavirus-could-burning-20-population-125914328.html\" class=\"vlp-link\" title=\"Coronavirus: could it be burning out after 20% of a population is infected?\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><\/a><div class=\"vlp-layout-zone-side\"><div class=\"vlp-block-2 vlp-link-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s.yimg.com\/uu\/api\/res\/1.2\/rbieig1s6E9t34ks.6cEJw--~B\/aD0yNzk7dz00OTY7c209MTthcHBpZD15dGFjaHlvbg--\/https:\/\/media.zenfs.com\/en\/the_conversation_464\/f32afc650252ec319f39d8a477b87593\" style=\"max-width: 150px; max-height: 150px\" \/><\/div><\/div><div class=\"vlp-layout-zone-main\"><div class=\"vlp-block-0 vlp-link-title\">Coronavirus: could it be burning out after 20% of a population is infected?<\/div><div class=\"vlp-block-1 vlp-link-summary\">There is speculation about whether a population can achieve some sort of immunity to the virus with as little as 20% infected.<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n<div class=\"vlp-link-container vlp-layout-basic wp-block-visual-link-preview-link\"><a href=\"https:\/\/science.sciencemag.org\/content\/early\/2020\/06\/22\/science.abc6810?fbclid=IwAR02-0OM6hvVNpCgbJlVjLl4PrBVsaB6EFRYlyBy6b85HedWdCFSTYyXrJc\" class=\"vlp-link\" title=\"A mathematical model reveals the influence of population heterogeneity on herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><\/a><div class=\"vlp-layout-zone-side\"><div class=\"vlp-block-2 vlp-link-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/science.sciencemag.org\/sites\/default\/files\/highwire\/sci\/368\/6498.cover-source.gif\" style=\"max-width: 150px; max-height: 150px\" \/><\/div><\/div><div class=\"vlp-layout-zone-main\"><div class=\"vlp-block-0 vlp-link-title\">A mathematical model reveals the influence of population heterogeneity on herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2<\/div><div class=\"vlp-block-1 vlp-link-summary\">Despite various levels of preventive measures, in 2020 many countries have suffered severely from the coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus. We show that population heterogeneity can significantly impact disease-induced \u2026<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n<div class=\"vlp-link-container vlp-layout-basic wp-block-visual-link-preview-link\"><a href=\"https:\/\/judithcurry.com\/2020\/05\/10\/why-herd-immunity-to-covid-19-is-reached-much-earlier-than-thought\/\" class=\"vlp-link\" title=\"Why herd immunity to COVID-19 is reached much earlier than thought\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><\/a><div class=\"vlp-layout-zone-side\"><div class=\"vlp-block-2 vlp-link-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/curryja.files.wordpress.com\/2020\/05\/fig4_seirbasehit1e06100001004302.4110.4012210.8-e1589121685775.png\" style=\"max-width: 150px; max-height: 150px\" \/><\/div><\/div><div class=\"vlp-layout-zone-main\"><div class=\"vlp-block-0 vlp-link-title\">Why herd immunity to COVID-19 is reached much earlier than thought<\/div><div class=\"vlp-block-1 vlp-link-summary\">By Nic Lewis Introduction A study published in March by the COVID-19 Response Team from Imperial College (Ferguson20[1]) appears to have been largely responsible for driving government actions in t\u2026<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n<p>People at high risk for serious cases of COVID benefit when low-risk populations become immune.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"vlp-link-container vlp-layout-basic wp-block-visual-link-preview-link\"><a href=\"https:\/\/news.yahoo.com\/the-emerging-face-of-covid-younger-patients-more-cases-but-fewer-deaths-155243892.html\" class=\"vlp-link\" title=\"The emerging face of COVID: Younger patients, more cases, but fewer deaths\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><\/a><div class=\"vlp-layout-zone-side\"><div class=\"vlp-block-2 vlp-link-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s.yimg.com\/uu\/api\/res\/1.2\/OKOJbvXNpiW7GbCOQD96Pw--~B\/aD03NTY7dz0xMzQ0O3NtPTE7YXBwaWQ9eXRhY2h5b24-\/https:\/\/media-mbst-pub-ue1.s3.amazonaws.com\/creatr-uploaded-images\/2020-06\/f4ea81f0-b179-11ea-a7df-2c12faaf29e7\" style=\"max-width: 150px; max-height: 150px\" \/><\/div><\/div><div class=\"vlp-layout-zone-main\"><div class=\"vlp-block-0 vlp-link-title\">The emerging face of COVID: Younger patients, more cases, but fewer deaths<\/div><div class=\"vlp-block-1 vlp-link-summary\">Case counts are climbing in more than 20 states. But so far COVID-19 death counts have not been climbing along with them. Is that because patients are&#8230;<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n<p>&#8220;While lockdown is effective in containing the viral spread, once lifted, regardless of duration, it would be unlikely to prevent a rebound. Both physical distancing and mask-wearing, although effective in slowing the epidemic and in reducing mortality, would also be ineffective in ultimately preventing ICUs from becoming overwhelmed and a subsequent second lockdown. However, these measures coupled with the shielding of vulnerable people would be associated with better outcomes, including lower mortality and maintaining an adequate ICU capacity to prevent a second lockdown.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"vlp-link-container vlp-layout-basic wp-block-visual-link-preview-link\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41591-020-1001-6?utm_source=facebook&amp;fbclid=IwAR1_I1qJW99ny1zcAjiuw14KDyCUMzEP9Kl59Fx7EZ2s4WJAPmrWvX64Zv4\" class=\"vlp-link\" title=\"A stochastic agent-based model of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in France\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><\/a><div class=\"vlp-layout-zone-side\"><div class=\"vlp-block-2 vlp-link-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/media.springernature.com\/m685\/springer-static\/image\/art%3A10.1038%2Fs41591-020-1001-6\/MediaObjects\/41591_2020_1001_Fig1_HTML.png\" style=\"max-width: 150px; max-height: 150px\" \/><\/div><\/div><div class=\"vlp-layout-zone-main\"><div class=\"vlp-block-0 vlp-link-title\">A stochastic agent-based model of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in France<\/div><div class=\"vlp-block-1 vlp-link-summary\">A new study that models the COVID-19 epidemic in France suggests that although a second peak is likely unavoidable, maintaining social distancing and wearing masks when lockdown restrictions are lifted, as well as continuing to shelter vulnerable individuals, will reduce mortality and avoid overwhel\u2026<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n<div class=\"vlp-link-container vlp-layout-basic wp-block-visual-link-preview-link\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.medicalnewstoday.com\/articles\/323728#takeaway\" class=\"vlp-link\" title=\"Chickenpox party: Benefits, risks, and how to do it safely\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><\/a><div class=\"vlp-layout-zone-main\"><div class=\"vlp-block-0 vlp-link-title\">Chickenpox party: Benefits, risks, and how to do it safely<\/div><div class=\"vlp-block-1 vlp-link-summary\">Chickenpox is a common childhood illness that results from a viral infection. Although a vaccine is available, some people prefer for their child to attend a chickenpox party to build up immunity to the virus in a natural way. Learn more here.<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n<div class=\"vlp-link-container vlp-layout-basic wp-block-visual-link-preview-link\"><a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Number_needed_to_harm\" class=\"vlp-link\" title=\"Number needed to harm - Wikipedia\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><\/a><div class=\"vlp-layout-zone-side\"><div class=\"vlp-block-2 vlp-link-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/upload.wikimedia.org\/wikipedia\/commons\/thumb\/6\/62\/Number_needed_to_harm_plain.svg\/1200px-Number_needed_to_harm_plain.svg.png\" style=\"max-width: 150px; max-height: 150px\" \/><\/div><\/div><div class=\"vlp-layout-zone-main\"><div class=\"vlp-block-0 vlp-link-title\">Number needed to harm &#8211; Wikipedia<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n<div class=\"vlp-link-container vlp-layout-basic wp-block-visual-link-preview-link\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cdc.gov\/nonpharmaceutical-interventions\/index.html\" class=\"vlp-link\" title=\"Nonpharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) | CDC\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><\/a><div class=\"vlp-layout-zone-side\"><div class=\"vlp-block-2 vlp-link-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.cdc.gov\/nonpharmaceutical-interventions\/images\/NPI-banner.jpg\" style=\"max-width: 150px; max-height: 150px\" \/><\/div><\/div><div class=\"vlp-layout-zone-main\"><div class=\"vlp-block-0 vlp-link-title\">Nonpharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) | CDC<\/div><div class=\"vlp-block-1 vlp-link-summary\">Pandemic flu and nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) site providing pandemic flu planners and public health professionals with NPI communication and educational materials, guidance tools and resources, and select research about NPIs and how they work in different community settings.<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n<div class=\"vlp-link-container vlp-layout-basic wp-block-visual-link-preview-link\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tropicalhealthsolutions.com\/statsglossary\" class=\"vlp-link\" title=\"EPIDEMIOLOGY - GLOSSARY OF EPIDEMIOLOGICAL AND STATISTICAL TERMINOLOGY | Tropical Health Solutions\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><\/a><div class=\"vlp-layout-zone-side\"><div class=\"vlp-block-2 vlp-link-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tropicalhealthsolutions.com\/images\/logo\/THSLogoFrontPageSlogan.png\" style=\"max-width: 150px; max-height: 150px\" \/><\/div><\/div><div class=\"vlp-layout-zone-main\"><div class=\"vlp-block-0 vlp-link-title\">EPIDEMIOLOGY &#8211; GLOSSARY OF EPIDEMIOLOGICAL AND STATISTICAL TERMINOLOGY | Tropical Health Solutions<\/div><div class=\"vlp-block-1 vlp-link-summary\">Agents &#8211; are biological, physical, or chemical factors that contribute to the occurrence of a disease. Biological agents such as viruses and bacteria are often necessary causes for (infectious) diseases. Chemical agents such as poisons or allergens, or physical agents such as radiation, noise, or he\u2026<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/courses.cit.cornell.edu\/bionb4280\/Epidemiology%20Terms.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">Cornell Glossary of Epidemiological Terms<\/a><\/h4>\n\n\n<div class=\"vlp-link-container vlp-layout-basic wp-block-visual-link-preview-link\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cdc.gov\/reproductivehealth\/data_stats\/glossary.html\" class=\"vlp-link\" title=\"Epidemiology Glossary | Data and Statistics | Reproductive Health | CDC\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><\/a><div class=\"vlp-layout-zone-main\"><div class=\"vlp-block-0 vlp-link-title\">Epidemiology Glossary | Data and Statistics | Reproductive Health | CDC<\/div><div class=\"vlp-block-1 vlp-link-summary\">Reproductive Health<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n<div class=\"vlp-link-container vlp-layout-basic wp-block-visual-link-preview-link\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thomasglassphd.com\/covid-19\/glossary\/\" class=\"vlp-link\" title=\"A Handy Glossary of COVID-19 Terms and Definitions\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><\/a><div class=\"vlp-layout-zone-side\"><div class=\"vlp-block-2 vlp-link-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thomasglassphd.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/image.jpg?fit=640%2C640&amp;ssl=1\" style=\"max-width: 150px; max-height: 150px\" \/><\/div><\/div><div class=\"vlp-layout-zone-main\"><div class=\"vlp-block-0 vlp-link-title\">A Handy Glossary of COVID-19 Terms and Definitions<\/div><div class=\"vlp-block-1 vlp-link-summary\">What do all these new terms mean? The COVID-19 outbreak has forced us all to take a crash course in infectious disease epidemiology. To help you understand what these terms mean, here is my glossar\u2026<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Partial List Of Epidemic Risk Management Methodologies Isolate High-Risk Population And Minimize Infection Window PeriodMinimize the period where infection is actively spreading and isolate high-risk population during that time. Complete ContainmentUse all available means in attempt to create virtually zero viral transmission Delay Until Treatment Options ImproveApply Safety Protocols while preparing treatment best practices Delay [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"no","_lmt_disable":"","site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"folder":[],"class_list":["post-862","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry","category-recenttopicslist"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Epidemic Risk Management Methodologies - Really Correct<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/reallycorrect.com\/ReallyCorrectWp1\/covid-19-epidemic-risk-management\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Epidemic Risk Management Methodologies - Really Correct\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Partial List Of Epidemic Risk Management Methodologies Isolate High-Risk Population And Minimize Infection Window PeriodMinimize the period where infection is actively spreading and isolate high-risk population during that time. 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