{"id":106,"date":"2020-05-07T15:50:34","date_gmt":"2020-05-07T22:50:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/reallycorrect.com\/ReallyCorrectWp1\/?page_id=106"},"modified":"2021-03-08T11:29:01","modified_gmt":"2021-03-08T19:29:01","slug":"covid-19-antibody-testing","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/reallycorrect.com\/ReallyCorrectWp1\/covid-19-antibody-testing\/","title":{"rendered":"COVID-19 Antibody Testing, Mortality, and Statistics"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Antibody test data helps us understand how many “unreported” cases exist (people that had it and didn’t get tested; people who didn’t understand what they had was COVID19; people who felt nothing but had it). Unreported cases can make fatality rates appear higher than reality. Antibody tests can help us also understand what percentage of a population has already recovered and how far up the “herd immunity” curve the population has become. Generally, the more recovered in a population, the less likely it is that an uninfected person will become infected because those with immunity do not make good transmitters of the virus.

The antibody test data below appears to show Infection Fatality Rates (IFR) of COVID19 are in the range of 0.12% to 0.58% which can be compared with Dr. Fauci’s quote of 0.1% for seasonal flu. This is far lower than some early COVID19 mortality estimates of 3%.

The data also shows that millions in the US have already recovered from COVID19 but were never tested for viral presence when they were sick and therefore were not captured by the PCR viral presence test statistics we see everyday. The data suggests that the actual number of US recovered could be somewhere in the range of 4 to 30 million as of late April 2020.

This viewpoint assumes the antibody studies were reasonably correct and the results are not radically different from the unknown realities at other major US population-centers \/ cities. NOTE: This data was last reviewed early May. It is subject to change as more studies are performed and improvements in existing studies are made. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Antibody Study Location<\/td>COVID Positive Antibody Study Result Extrapolation Error Band<\/td>COVID Positive Antibody Result Fraction (Error Bounded to Extrapolated  Study Population)<\/td>Study Population Adult Recovered Extrapolation<\/td>US Wide Adult Recovered Extrapolation (not properly error bounded)<\/td>Approx. Confirmed Cases Positive PCR Viral Presence Test Around Study Date<\/td>Confirmed To Extrapolated Multiplier<\/td>Approx. Deaths As Of Study Date<\/td>Approx. Mortality Rate (given adjustments from study)<\/td>Sources \/ References<\/td>Test Supplier<\/td>Test Specificity (lower value means more false positives)<\/td><\/tr>
LA County 1<\/td>Low<\/td>0.028<\/td>221000<\/td>6132000<\/td>7994<\/td>27.6<\/td>600.0<\/td>0.00271<\/td>http:\/\/publichealth.lacounty.gov\/phcommon\/public\/media\/mediapubhpdetail.cfm?prid=2328&fbclid=IwAR23Mk08UdYZo43oqgt3S6mi1V-KlNgu0a4BC-V8LOq4miBt5THfzC5D-IE<\/a><\/td>Premier Biotech \/ Hangzhou Biotest Biotech<\/td>95-99%<\/td><\/tr>
<\/td>Median<\/td>0.041<\/td>331500<\/td>8979000<\/td>7994<\/td>41.5<\/td>600.0<\/td>0.00181<\/td><\/tr>
<\/td>High<\/td>0.056<\/td>442000<\/td>12264000<\/td>7994<\/td>55.3<\/td>600.0<\/td>0.00136<\/td><\/tr>
Stanford \/ Santa Clara 1<\/td>Low<\/td>0.018<\/td>48000<\/td>3942000<\/td>956<\/td>50.2<\/td>100.0<\/td>0.00208<\/td>https:\/\/www.medrxiv.org\/content\/10.1101\/2020.04.14.20062463v1.full.pdf?fbclid=IwAR2ZQe5qCvv6xCmCNykxPcNA1HpOV58yulyQYdeurU4twfc4Qx6OjLDVPDs<\/a><\/td>Premier Biotech \/ Hangzhou Biotest Biotech<\/td>95-99%<\/td><\/tr>
<\/td>Median<\/td>0.0249<\/td>64500<\/td>5453100<\/td>956<\/td>67.5<\/td>100.0<\/td>0.00155<\/td><\/tr>
<\/td>High<\/td>0.0317<\/td>81000<\/td>6942300<\/td>956<\/td>84.7<\/td>100.0<\/td>0.00123<\/td><\/tr>
New  York 1<\/td>Low<\/td><\/td><\/td>0<\/td><\/td><\/td>15700.0<\/td> <\/td>https:\/\/coronavirus.health.ny.gov\/system\/files\/documents\/2020\/04\/nysdohhcpwebinar4.23.20.pdf<\/a><\/td>Wadsworth Center\u2019s Assay SARS-CoV-2 IgG <\/td><\/td><\/tr>
<\/td>Median<\/td>0.139<\/td>2700000<\/td>30441000<\/td>257000<\/td>10.5<\/td>15700.0<\/td>0.00581<\/td><\/tr>
<\/td>High<\/td><\/td><\/td>0<\/td><\/td><\/td>15700.0<\/td> <\/td><\/tr>
Miami Dade 1<\/td>Low<\/td>0.044<\/td>123000<\/td>9636000<\/td>10600<\/td>11.6<\/td>900.0<\/td>0.00732<\/td>https:\/\/www.miamidade.gov\/releases\/2020-04-24-sample-testing-results.asp<\/a><\/td>?<\/td><\/td><\/tr>
<\/td>Median<\/td>0.06<\/td>165000<\/td>13140000<\/td>10600<\/td>15.6<\/td>900.0<\/td>0.00545<\/td><\/tr>
<\/td>High<\/td>0.079<\/td>221000<\/td>17301000<\/td>10600<\/td>20.8<\/td>900.0<\/td>0.00407<\/td><\/tr>
Chelsea Mass 1<\/td>Low<\/td><\/td><\/td>0<\/td>712<\/td>0.0<\/td>39.0<\/td> <\/td>https:\/\/www.foxnews.com\/science\/third-blood-samples-massachusetts-study-coronavirus<\/a><\/td>BioMedomics<\/td>91%<\/td><\/tr>
<\/td>Median<\/td>0.32<\/td>12851.2<\/td>70080000<\/td>712<\/td>18.0<\/td>39.0<\/td>0.00303<\/td><\/tr>
<\/td>High<\/td><\/td><\/td>0<\/td>712<\/td>0.0<\/td>39.0<\/td> <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n


Peer reviewed and formally published LA County antibody seroprevalence study <\/h3>\n\n\n
<\/a>
<\/div><\/div>
Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2\u2013Specific Antibodies in Los Angeles County, California<\/div>
This population epidemiology study investigates the prevalence of IgG and IgM antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in Los Angeles County, California, as a marker of both active and past infections.<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n
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<\/p>\n\n\n\n


Testing Overview – 2 VERY different types of tests.<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

PCR viral presence (nasal \/ throat mucous swab) tests<\/em><\/strong>, when positive, indicate that the virus is present in the mucous swab. This likely means the person is infected unless they are lucky enough to just have a random virus in their mucous but not actually in their body (not likely). Sometimes people who have recovered will have mucous remnants that contain viruses which may be the cause of some “had COVID, recovered, tested negative, then later retested positive again” cases. The PCR viral presence test<\/a> uses an “amplification” technique that enables the most sensitive equipment to detect fewer than 50 viruses in a sample.

Antibody (blood-sample) serology tests<\/em><\/strong>, when positive, indicate that a person has antibodies. Antibodies form very early during infection, usually becoming measurable right around the time symptoms occur and can remain at measurable levels for years after the infection is gone and recovery is complete such that the person has had an acquired immune system response (the part of the immune system that learns how to target specific viruses and “remembers” them). If a person has no symptoms (and\/or no PCR viral presence test positive), they are likely in the “recovered” state, have measurable antibodies, and those antibodies likely afford some level of future immunity. Antibodies are what enable someone to recover and many people have had such recoveries. If people still have antibodies well after having recovered, it would be exceptionally odd to think that those antibodies will not perform some immune response as they did in during recovery from the first infection.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n

<\/a>
<\/div><\/div>
Opinion | New Data Suggest the Coronavirus Isn\u2019t as Deadly as We Thought<\/div>
A study finds 50 to 85 times as many infections as known cases\u2014meaning a far lower fatality rate.<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n

According to the following article regarding military COVID-19 cases, it appears that the generally healthy military population had a hospitalization \/ serious-case rate of about 2.8% and a mortality rate of about 0.09% (3\/(6221*0.55). Again these figures are for a generally healthy military population that does not have any part of it’s population on hospice and otherwise in a category of pre-active dying \/ old-age. The military population may contain some with life-long asthma preconditions but relatively few of the other COVID-19 high risk groups. Data for this analysis is taken from the following article.<\/p>\n\n\n

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Defense secretary says coronavirus vaccine will be available within months, but experts skeptical<\/div>
Pentagon leaders expressed strong confidence Thursday that a coronavirus vaccine will be available by January, and possibly as early as this fall \u2014 claims…<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n

Also see Daily Reporting Is Misleading<\/a>.<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

If the number of reported deaths are inflated as suspected, the mortality rates stated above need to be adjusted downward accordingly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Antibody Test Information<\/a>.<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The Abbott Antibody Rapid Test Kit appears to have excellent specificity.

Only tests with very high specificity are accurate enough to ensure a false positive result does not occur. A false positive could occur from an antibody to a virus besides SARS-CoV-2 triggering a positive. This could falsely lead someone to believe that they are immune to SARS-CoV-2 \/ COVID19 when really they are immune to some other virus. High specificity means that the test ONLY detects antibodies to the specific virus that the test targets.

The simple rapid test kits lack sensitivity to find antibodies in people who recovered long ago from their infection (>20 to 90 days). So a negative result from these rapid test kits does NOT mean that antibodies do not exist in the blood sample. It does mean that there were insufficient quantities to detect with that inexpensive test. A lab grade, high sensitivity, “titrate”, quantitative test is needed to test for older infections. For example, if you think some flu symptoms you had 2, 3, or more months ago may have been COVID19, the rapid test kit finger-prick test will probably not detect it. You will need a higher lab grade “titrate” quantitative high-sensitivity test.

And again, to ensure that the test is highly SPECIFIC only to SARS-CoV-2 \/ COVID19, the test must have very high specificity.<\/p>\n\n\n

<\/a>
<\/div><\/div>
COVID-19 Testing Project<\/div>
We are a multidisciplinary team of researchers and physicians at UCSF, UC Berkeley, Chan Zuckerberg Biohub, and Innovative Genomics Institute.<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n

Assure COVID-19 IgG\/IgM Rapid Test Device – Assure Tech. (Hangzhou Co., Ltd)
“Positive results may be due to past or present infection with non-SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus strains, such as coronavirus HKU1, NL63, OC43, or 229E”.<\/a>
Is this the same as the BD Biomedomics?<\/p>\n\n\n

<\/a>
<\/div><\/div>
Evaluation of nine commercial SARS-CoV-2 immunoassays<\/div>
Due to urgency and demand, numerous severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) immunoassays are rapidly being developed and placed on the market with limited validation on clinical samples. Thorough validation of serological tests are required to facilitate their use in the accurat\u2026<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n
<\/a>
<\/div><\/div>
Side by side comparison of three fully automated SARS-CoV-2 antibody assays with a focus on specificity<\/div>
Background In the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, numerous new serological test systems for the detection of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies have become available quickly. However, the clinical performance of many of them is still insufficiently described. Therefore we compared three commercial, CE-mar\u2026<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n
<\/a>
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Global IgM or IgG Antibody Rapid Test Kits Market Research Report with Opportunities and Strategies to Boost Growth- COVID-19 Impact and Recovery : ReportsnReports<\/div>
[126 Pages Report] Check for Discount on Global IgM or IgG Antibody Rapid Test Kits Market Research Report with Opportunities and Strategies to Boost Growth- COVID-19 Impact and Recovery report by Maia Research. …<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n
<\/a>
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Test performance evaluation of SARS-CoV-2 serological assays<\/div>
Serological tests are crucial tools for assessments of SARS-CoV-2 exposure, infection and potential immunity. Their appropriate use and interpretation require accurate assay performance data.We conducted an evaluation of 10 lateral flow assays (LFAs) …<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n
<\/a>
<\/div><\/div>
Side by side comparison of three fully automated SARS-CoV-2 antibody assays with a focus on specificity<\/div>
Background: In the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, numerous new serological test systems for the detection of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies have become available quickly. However, the clinical performance of many of them is still insufficiently described. Therefore we compared three commercial, CE-ma\u2026<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n
<\/a>
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Covid-19 antibody tests face a very specific problem<\/div>
With the prevalence of coronavirus infection running at about 5%, test manufacturers and regulators alike will have to guard against false positives.<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n
<\/a>
<\/div><\/div>
Why Do We Need Antibody Tests for COVID-19 and How to Interpret Test Results<\/div>
Why Do We Need Antibody Tests for COVID-19?Diagnosing viral infections currently relies on two major methodologies: Reverse Transcription Quantitative Polymerase Chain Reaction (RT-qPCR) and serolo…<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n
<\/a>
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Antibody tests may hold clues to COVID-19 exposure, immunity\u2014but it\u2019s complicated<\/div>
Scientists are sifting through which of dozens of serologic tests are going to be useful for assessing how many people have been exposed. But only one test has been reviewed by the FDA.<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n
<\/a>
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How Do the COVID-19 Coronavirus Tests Work?<\/div>
Tests may use two methods to detect SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes COVID-19.\u00a0Genomic or molecular detection confirms the presence of viral DNA. The immunoglobulin or serology tests can tell whether or not you have been exposed to coronavirus, but not whether you are currently infected. Both tests admi\u2026<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n
<\/a>
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COVID-19 Serology Testing Explained | ASM.org<\/div>
An in-depth look at the principles of COVID-19 serology testing \u2013 protocols, platforms, authorization guidelines, interpretation of results, accuracy concerns and overcoming roadblocks to success.<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n

ELISA method may be more sensitive than CLIA method in detecting old infections. Certainly the finger-prick lateral flow rapid test kits are not sensitive enough to detect older infections (> 30 to 60 days).<\/p>\n\n\n

<\/a>
<\/div><\/div>
Comparing Assay Performance of ELISA and Chemiluminescence Immunoassay in Detecting Antibodies to Hepatitis B Surface Antigen<\/div>
Antibodies to Hepatitis B surface Antigen (Anti-HBs) levels are measured as markers for immune response to vaccination and in decision making for post-exposure prophylaxis against Hepatitis-B. Several immunoassay formats are used to measure Anti-HBs, …<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n

The study below appears focused on “near date of infection” results. Need a study that is “several months after infection”. <\/p>\n\n\n

<\/a>
<\/div><\/div>
Diagnostic Accuracy of an Automated Chemiluminescent Immunoassay for anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgM and IgG Antibodies: An Italian Experience – PubMed<\/div>
A pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has been spreading throughout the world. Though molecular diagnostic tests are the gold standard for COVID-19, serological testing is emerging as a potential surveillance tool, in\u2026<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n
<\/a>
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Clinical Validity of Serum Antibodies to SARS-CoV-2: A Case\u2013Control Study: Annals of Internal Medicine: Vol 0, No 0<\/div>
Background: The clinical utility of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) antibodies remains undefined. Objective: To determine the clinical validity and utility of SARS-CoV-…<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n
<\/a>
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SARS-CoV-2 Immunoassay | Abbott Core Laboratory<\/div>
Abbott is helping to fight the COVID-19 crisis by developing an assay for the detection of the SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibody\u2014designed and trusted by leading Abbott Scientists.<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n

Quest has good info on their site and may be among the best?

It appears their Abbott test is a CLIA type which may not be as sensitive as an ELISA type test (see above). They also have tests from 2 other manufacturers. Still researching.<\/p>\n\n\n

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Covid19 information for Patients : Information For Patients<\/div>
Quest Diagnostics helps patients find answers during the COVID-19 crisis through our work in active infection testing and immune response antibody testing.<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n

The Solution appears to use the Abbott test which has low false positives (good specificity), but perhaps less than best sensitivity such that it cannot detect recovered infections that occurred more than 1 or 2 months prior.<\/p>\n\n\n

<\/a>
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COVID19 Antibody Testing – The Solution<\/div>
The Solution is now offering an FDA-cleared COVID-19 Antibody Test. This test will help our customers gain insight into whether they have been exposed to the virus and recommendations for next steps in the fight against it.<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n

While this test data is not well reviewed, the average fatality rate from all these test results is about 0.33% which correlates to the better reviewed but narrower statistical sample data shown near the top of this page.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Study\/Release<\/td>Test Type<\/td>Infected (%)<\/td>Undercount\/
Ascertainment Bias<\/td>		Regional
IFR (%)<\/td>		Population<\/td>Link<\/td><\/tr>
Northern France Study<\/td>Serological<\/td>25.9<\/td>582<\/td>0<\/td>Oise high school students<\/td>https:\/\/www.medrxiv.org\/content\/10.1101\/2020.04.18.20071134v1<\/td><\/tr>
Gibraltar Study<\/td>PCR<\/td>2<\/td>7<\/td>0<\/td>Gibraltar Region<\/td>https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=FnlMRUWSX2Q&fbclid=IwAR1UO7j5YD_QQnaBwCJRyk1fxr1j0_Vkr7pLJCmqvbvXHPt1FMB82BpYr0U<\/td><\/tr>
San Miguel Sample<\/td>Serological<\/td>2<\/td>15<\/td>0<\/td>Sample of whole Colorado town<\/td>https:\/\/www.sanmiguelcountyco.gov\/CivicAlerts.aspx?AID=511&fbclid=IwAR3XfQkv1OCSuOY-w1FkDCu0BDGnG07yf-D9_Ilne_Bd8oYAnJ80S6w2QZU<\/td><\/tr>
LA County Flu Surveillance<\/td>PCR<\/td>5<\/td>100<\/td>0.01<\/td>LA Flu Surveillance<\/td>https:\/\/jamanetwork.com\/journals\/jama\/fullarticle\/2764137?guestAccessKey=525fc308-4cd3-4670-ad73-15b8b019f2a8&utm_source=For_The_Media&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=ftm_links&utm_content=tfl&utm_term=033120&fbclid=IwAR002a6aaBUV-_4OMIzIofWAjp_DAbB8hZejGVA5BLOvrEUR68tVb1prP8A<\/td><\/tr>
International Medical Cluster Study<\/td>Serological<\/td>10<\/td>50<\/td>0.03<\/td>Moscow Residents<\/td>https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-health-coronavirus-russia-antibodies\/up-to-one-in-10-residents-of-moscow-may-have-had-coronavirus-infections-laboratory-idUSKCN2262Z7?utm_source=reddit.com<\/td><\/tr>
Flu-like Surveillance<\/td>PCR<\/td>10<\/td>100<\/td>0.05<\/td>Flu Surveillance<\/td>https:\/\/www.medrxiv.org\/content\/10.1101\/2020.04.01.20050542v2?fbclid=IwAR0ccDKohage1txFGvJ7kSZavLbhx1xUg_-UcxT_Kjq43rAKXh2GB-0Ttxc<\/td><\/tr>
Pregnant Sample<\/td>PCR<\/td>7<\/td>143<\/td>0.05<\/td>Pregnant Women in Sweden<\/td>https:\/\/www.svt.se\/nyheter\/inrikes\/coronatestar-alla-gravida-pa-forlossningen-sju-procent-smittade?fbclid=IwAR2nGl4OLF0rduQVKr3YF4C1K54s45jIym8Y0eEpQTNlfriIkGKrDveCcG0<\/td><\/tr>
Denmark Study<\/td>Serological<\/td>70<\/td>0.05<\/td>Capital Region<\/td>https:\/\/www.sst.dk\/-\/media\/Udgivelser\/2020\/Corona\/Status-og-strategi\/COVID19_Status-6-uge.ashx?la=da&hash=6819E71BFEAAB5ACA55BD6161F38B75F1EB05999&fbclid=IwAR0yF9-CVqtvldch1wRB0d2esxDwzH-rjv3XRJq62Qt1WWAkR48BIMauvbI<\/td><\/tr>
Kobe Serology Study<\/td>Serological<\/td>2.7<\/td>627<\/td>0.06<\/td>Kobe, Japan<\/td>https:\/\/www.medrxiv.org\/content\/10.1101\/2020.04.26.20079822v1.full.pdf<\/td><\/tr>
Danish Blood Donor Study<\/td>Serological<\/td>1.7<\/td>11<\/td>0.08<\/td>Danish Blood Donors < 70 years old<\/td>https:\/\/www.medrxiv.org\/content\/10.1101\/2020.04.24.20075291v1<\/td><\/tr>
Homeless Sample<\/td>PCR<\/td>36<\/td>37<\/td>0.08<\/td>Boston Homeless<\/td>https:\/\/www.wbur.org\/commonhealth\/2020\/04\/14\/coronavirus-boston-homeless-testing?fbclid=IwAR0Ai5luXYXKOGLB8Y-znlk0yXakg5Q_R_mowEV1bU8AGt15VaC2a99Ft7g<\/td><\/tr>
Swedish Study<\/td>PCR<\/td>2.5<\/td>20<\/td>0.08<\/td>Stockholm<\/td>https:\/\/www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se\/nyheter-och-press\/nyhetsarkiv\/2020\/april\/resultat-fran-undersokning-av-forekomsten-av-covid-19-i-region-stockholm\/?fbclid=IwAR2YDRAod3hXJ8CB0-2n3VB2ei30LFB3jsN6Ek9MolXitelycNv6ZpIrm-g<\/td><\/tr>
Swedish Study<\/td>Serological<\/td>20<\/td>105<\/td>0.11<\/td>Swedish Hospital Workers<\/td>https:\/\/www.ds.se\/om-oss\/press2\/#\/pressreleases\/var-femte-medarbetare-har-haft-covid-19-2994310<\/td><\/tr>
Iranian Study<\/td>Serological<\/td>33<\/td>543<\/td>0.12<\/td>Guilan province, Iran<\/td>https:\/\/www.medrxiv.org\/content\/10.1101\/2020.04.26.20079244v1<\/td><\/tr>
Wuhan Repatriation<\/td>PCR<\/td>34<\/td>46<\/td>0.12<\/td>Repatriation Flights<\/td>https:\/\/www.medrxiv.org\/content\/10.1101\/2020.02.12.20022434v2?fbclid=IwAR0xX_0fZLr2K0DCh9X8uIlbE1GJPnRpDikxBrah3UD14vRP21yI3kHDBR8<\/td><\/tr>
Greek Repatriation Flights<\/td>PCR<\/td>6.3<\/td>59.65<\/td>0.15<\/td>Repatriated Barcelonians<\/td>https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/jtm\/article\/doi\/10.1093\/jtm\/taaa054\/5820895<\/td><\/tr>
Private SF Study<\/td>Serological<\/td>0.5<\/td>10<\/td>0.15<\/td>Self-Selected SF Residents<\/td>https:\/\/twitter.com\/friedberg\/status\/1245461209542868992?s=20&fbclid=IwAR2gmBbFnTMcp4pl2d-x8nkvQDXVRB3q-4h3Og3etHmxXZ4W5-g_NbyaABE<\/td><\/tr>
Slovenia Study<\/td>Serological<\/td>3<\/td>41<\/td>0.16<\/td>Slovenian Population<\/td>https:\/\/www.rtvslo.si\/zdravje\/novi-koronavirus\/prekuzenost-z-novim-koronavirusom-pri-nas-nizka\/522756<\/td><\/tr>
Idaho Study<\/td>Serological\/PCR<\/td>1.79<\/td>13<\/td>0.17<\/td>Boise Population<\/td>https:\/\/www.medrxiv.org\/content\/10.1101\/2020.04.27.20082362v1<\/td><\/tr>
Santa Clara County<\/td>Serological<\/td>2.8<\/td>24.5<\/td>0.17<\/td>Santa Clara County<\/td>https:\/\/www.medrxiv.org\/content\/10.1101\/2020.04.14.20062463v2<\/td><\/tr>
Swedish Serological Study<\/td>Serological<\/td>10<\/td>25<\/td>0.18<\/td>Stockholm<\/td>https:\/\/www.kth.se\/aktuellt\/nyheter\/10-procent-av-stockholmarna-smittade-1.980727<\/td><\/tr>
Miami-Dade Study<\/td>Serological<\/td>6<\/td>15<\/td>0.2<\/td>Miami-Dade Residents<\/td>https:\/\/www.miamiherald.com\/news\/coronavirus\/article242260406.html?fbclid=IwAR2svgTSw4gmNvTrCl35bG1lYQtmqkMXOc4Sre_92zLdJx1Uyr1T6FeaR2U<\/td><\/tr>
LA County<\/td>Serological<\/td>4.1<\/td>41.5<\/td>0.2<\/td>LA County<\/td>http:\/\/publichealth.lacounty.gov\/phcommon\/public\/media\/mediapubhpdetail.cfm?prid=2328&fbclid=IwAR3MpnIeX6earYrGRwAGrMWpEr3K5MOk7zB29hgNHJW4krvpyeGJRGEHqT8<\/td><\/tr>
SF Study<\/td>PCR<\/td>1.4<\/td>7.04<\/td>0.25<\/td>Mission District Latinx Population<\/td>https:\/\/www.ucsf.edu\/news\/2020\/05\/417356\/initial-results-mission-district-covid-19-testing-announced<\/td><\/tr>
Iceland Continous Sampling<\/td>PCR<\/td>1<\/td><\/td>0.28<\/td>Iceland<\/td>https:\/\/www.nejm.org\/doi\/full\/10.1056\/NEJMoa2006100<\/td><\/tr>
<\/td><\/td>Median Averages<\/td>23.3<\/td>0.28<\/td><\/td><\/td><\/tr>
Super-spreader Study<\/td>PCR<\/td>15.5<\/td>5<\/td>0.36<\/td>Super-spreader event in Germany<\/td>https:\/\/www.ukbonn.de\/C12582D3002FD21D\/vwLookupDownloads\/Streeck_et_al_Infection_fatality_rate_of_SARS_CoV_2_infection2.pdf\/%24FILE\/Streeck_et_al_Infection_fatality_rate_of_SARS_CoV_2_infection2.pdf<\/td><\/tr>
Wuhan Hospital<\/td>Serological<\/td>10<\/td>22.1<\/td>0.36<\/td>Wuhan Region<\/td>https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1002\/jmv.25904<\/td><\/tr>
German Survey<\/td>Serological<\/td>14<\/td>20<\/td>0.37<\/td>Gangelt<\/td>https:\/\/www.uni-bonn.de\/news\/111-2020?set_language=en<\/td><\/tr>
Finnish Institute<\/td>Serological<\/td>3.4<\/td>6<\/td>0.39<\/td>Helsinki<\/td>https:\/\/thl.fi\/en\/web\/thlfi-en\/-\/number-of-people-with-coronavirus-infections-may-be-dozens-of-times-higher-than-the-number-of-confirmed-cases?fbclid=IwAR3bDYNRIQBQFxhJdrmjypoHtbk_thqb5E_ayR9IUU3FUGeXrP3oc6GwpS0<\/td><\/tr>
Italian Epidemic Report<\/td>PCR<\/td>10.7<\/td>30<\/td>0.4<\/td>Italian Healthcare Workers<\/td>https:\/\/www.epicentro.iss.it\/coronavirus\/bollettino\/Bollettino-sorveglianza-integrata-COVID-19_16-aprile-2020.pdf#page=13<\/td><\/tr>
Switzerland Study<\/td>Serological<\/td>5.5<\/td>10<\/td>0.4<\/td>Geneva<\/td>https:\/\/www.hug-ge.ch\/medias\/communique-presse\/seroprevalence-covid-19-premiere-estimation<\/td><\/tr>
Second Switzerland Study<\/td>Serological<\/td>9.7<\/td>9.55<\/td>0.5<\/td>Geneva<\/td>https:\/\/www.medrxiv.org\/content\/10.1101\/2020.05.02.20088898v1.full.pdf<\/td><\/tr>
Total COVID-19 Mortality in Italy<\/td>PCR<\/td>67<\/td>35<\/td>0.5<\/td>Italy extrapolated to NYC<\/td>https:\/\/www.medrxiv.org\/content\/10.1101\/2020.04.15.20067074v2<\/td><\/tr>
Northern France Study<\/td>Serological<\/td>3<\/td>69<\/td>0.5<\/td>Oise blood donors<\/td>https:\/\/www.medrxiv.org\/content\/10.1101\/2020.04.18.20071134v1<\/td><\/tr>
Pregnant Sample<\/td>PCR<\/td>14<\/td>17<\/td>0.53<\/td>Pregnant Women in NYC<\/td>https:\/\/www.nejm.org\/doi\/full\/10.1056\/NEJMc2009316?fbclid=IwAR0MOuMrCb3xe0lfiNMZwND4FN_HSDimM_fLdBrmDXuWeJzLVc4bnKlH48M<\/td><\/tr>
London HCW Screening<\/td>PCR<\/td>7.1<\/td>35<\/td>0.54<\/td>London Health Care Workers<\/td>https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/article\/PIIS0140-6736(20)31100-4\/fulltext<\/td><\/tr>
Madrid Study<\/td>PCR<\/td>11.6<\/td>31<\/td>0.54<\/td>Madrid Hospital Workers<\/td>https:\/\/www.medrxiv.org\/content\/10.1101\/2020.04.07.20055723v1?fbclid=IwAR0mg2DXxFZUNuzYuGuQOkwgQySH5_bUpwODJdWeWFONjCAbheml28hxPCs<\/td><\/tr>
HCW Madrid Study<\/td>Serological\/PCR<\/td>11.2<\/td>31<\/td>0.56<\/td>Madrid Hospital Workers<\/td>https:\/\/www.medrxiv.org\/content\/10.1101\/2020.04.27.20082289v1<\/td><\/tr>
New York Study<\/td>Serological<\/td>13.9<\/td>11.2<\/td>0.56<\/td>New York State Residents<\/td>https:\/\/www.governor.ny.gov\/news\/amid-ongoing-covid-19-pandemic-governor-cuomo-announces-statewide-antibody-testing-survey-will<\/td><\/tr>
Ohio Prison Data<\/td>PCR<\/td>66<\/td><\/td>0.57<\/td>Marion Correctional Institution <\/td>https:\/\/drc.ohio.gov\/Portals\/0\/DRC%20COVID-19%20Information%2005-03-2020%201253.pdf<\/td><\/tr>
Czech Study<\/td>Serological<\/td>0.4<\/td>5<\/td>0.59<\/td>Czech Population<\/td>https:\/\/medicalxpress.com\/news\/2020-05-czech-covid-incidence-population.html<\/td><\/tr>
Covid-19 Simulation<\/td>PCR<\/td><\/td><\/td>0.6<\/td>Repatriation Data<\/td>https:\/\/www.medrxiv.org\/content\/10.1101\/2020.03.09.20033357v1.full.pdf?fbclid=IwAR3ATHWmq2CQRMGy95V-YV6LZ4hBZcXt2WJuKhmEBxuvcoHY9mdNM-HsB8E<\/td><\/tr>
Dutch Survey<\/td>Serological<\/td>3<\/td>31<\/td>0.67<\/td>Netherlands<\/td>https:\/\/www.researchsquare.com\/article\/rs-25862\/v1<\/td><\/tr>
Chelesa Data<\/td>Serological<\/td>33<\/td>30.1<\/td>0.71<\/td>Chelesa Street Survey<\/td>https:\/\/www.bostonglobe.com\/2020\/04\/17\/business\/nearly-third-200-blood-samples-taken-chelsea-show-exposure-coronavirus\/?fbclid=IwAR3XQlYzGz7cMfc3nmQSAbG8jTICJ7nkG8ZMfH-fObf8QmQ2FYthvSiAEkQ<\/td><\/tr>
Continous New York State Study<\/td>Serological<\/td>19.99<\/td>10.06<\/td>0.77<\/td>New York City Residents<\/td>https:\/\/www.governor.ny.gov\/news\/amid-ongoing-covid-19-pandemic-governor-cuomo-announces-results-completed-antibody-testing<\/td><\/tr>
Early French Analysis<\/td>PCR<\/td><\/td>8<\/td>0.8<\/td>Simulation<\/td>https:\/\/www.medrxiv.org\/content\/10.1101\/2020.03.22.20040915v4<\/td><\/tr>
Italy Town Sample<\/td>PCR<\/td>70<\/td>10<\/td>1<\/td>Sample of whole Italian town<\/td>https:\/\/www.lastampa.it\/topnews\/primo-piano\/2020\/04\/02\/news\/coronavirus-castiglione-d-adda-e-un-caso-di-studio-il-70-dei-donatori-di-sangue-e-positivo-1.38666481?fbclid=IwAR2w8-93Obhq4uRHpZYbbn-yEO_LjmCPMtQdXQ-wkkmCInIj9rxXJeEAwJc<\/td><\/tr>
Italian Analysis<\/td>PCR<\/td><\/td>5<\/td>1<\/td>Repatriation Data<\/td>https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/laninf\/article\/PIIS1473-3099(20)30227-9\/fulltext?fbclid=IwAR3b9eOpxeQLbUxmxjFHGK2b2M2tM7dRerS0Y5cWPV6H6B1QPqZsN_GzDX0<\/td><\/tr>
Ohio Prison Data<\/td>PCR<\/td>73<\/td><\/td>1.44<\/td>Pickaway Correctional Institution<\/td>https:\/\/drc.ohio.gov\/Portals\/0\/DRC%20COVID-19%20Information%2005-03-2020%201253.pdf<\/td><\/tr>
Scottish Blood Donors<\/td>Serological<\/td>0.6<\/td>20<\/td><\/td>Scotland<\/td>https:\/\/figshare.com\/articles\/Serological_analysis_of_1000_Scottish_blood_donor_samples_for_anti-SARSCoV2_antibodies_collected_in_March_2020\/12116778\/2?fbclid=IwAR1wkF1QVZeAt6jDNmeWVJwBmK6Bo8zYPnBRJruvfOYqYO9qFEXuMndjpI8<\/td><\/tr>
Wuhan Flu Surveillance<\/td>PCR<\/td>1.4<\/td>20<\/td><\/td>Wuhan Flu Data<\/td>https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41564-020-0713-1<\/td><\/tr>
Covid-19 Simulation<\/td>PCR<\/td><\/td>5<\/td><\/td>Simulation<\/td>https:\/\/science.sciencemag.org\/content\/early\/2020\/03\/24\/science.abb3221.full?fbclid=IwAR3NQ_ybQnjzyysGQPvLsb-9zfKOoHYY22CJMMbry7-mCGEC1LYcTjQf0Z0<\/td><\/tr>
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<\/td><\/td><\/td><\/td>17.69<\/td>0.333774<\/td><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n
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PCR and Serological Studies<\/div>
Sheet1 Study\/Release,Test Type,Infected (%),Undercount\/
\nAscertainment Bias,Regional
\nIFR (%),Population,Link
\nLondon HCW Screening,PCR,7.10,35.00,0.54,London Health Care Workers,<a href=<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n
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Seroprevalence of Antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in 10 Sites in the United States, 2020<\/div>
This cross-sectional study estimates the prevalence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 antibodies in convenience samples from 10 geographic sites in the United States.<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n


In a small population of generally healthy navy sailors, as of mid-May, 1 death occurred in 1156 PCR viral presence test confirmed positive cases, resulting in a mortality rate of 0.087%. If another death occurs, that would double to 0.17%. Again, keeping in mind Dr. Fauci’s stated rate of 0.1% for seasonal flu across all population including those at higher risk. While asthma is considered a risk factor, it is not known if the navy screens out asthma sufferers and personnel with potential risk factors. But we do know that good general health is a screen for active duty.<\/p>\n\n\n

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COVID-19 pandemic on USS Theodore Roosevelt – Wikipedia<\/div>
USS Theodore Roosevelt in October 2019<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n
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CDC: Coronavirus fatality rate could be as low as 0.26%<\/div>
Earlier estimates pegged the rate significantly higher<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n
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Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)<\/div>
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a virus (more specifically, a coronavirus) identified as the cause of an outbreak of respiratory illness first detected in Wuhan, China.<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n


Immune System Function<\/h3>\n\n\n\n


Some great introductory material on the immune system. In about an hour, many people could develop a good fundamental understanding of the immune system.<\/p>\n\n\n

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B lymphocytes (B cells) (video) | Immunology | Khan Academy<\/div>
Overview of B cells (B lymphocytes) and how they are activated and produce antibodies.<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n

After reviewing all of the Khan videos, the following videos will strengthen the fundamentals and introduce additional levels of knowledge.<\/p>\n\n\n

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The Immune System \u2022 iBiology<\/div>
Ira Mellman explains that the immune system is made up of specialized cells that protect us from the huge number and diverstiy of pathogens we encounter.<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n
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Basic Immunology: Nuts and Bolts of the Immune System<\/div>
More in the<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n
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