COVID-19 Antibody Testing, Mortality, and Statistics

Antibody test data helps us understand how many “unreported” cases exist (people that had it and didn’t get tested; people who didn’t understand what they had was COVID19; people who felt nothing but had it). Unreported cases can make fatality rates appear higher than reality. Antibody tests can help us also understand what percentage of a population has already recovered and how far up the “herd immunity” curve the population has become. Generally, the more recovered in a population, the less likely it is that an uninfected person will become infected because those with immunity do not make good transmitters of the virus.

The antibody test data below appears to show Infection Fatality Rates (IFR) of COVID19 are in the range of 0.12% to 0.58% which can be compared with Dr. Fauci’s quote of 0.1% for seasonal flu. This is far lower than some early COVID19 mortality estimates of 3%.

The data also shows that millions in the US have already recovered from COVID19 but were never tested for viral presence when they were sick and therefore were not captured by the PCR viral presence test statistics we see everyday. The data suggests that the actual number of US recovered could be somewhere in the range of 4 to 30 million as of late April 2020.

This viewpoint assumes the antibody studies were reasonably correct and the results are not radically different from the unknown realities at other major US population-centers / cities. NOTE: This data was last reviewed early May. It is subject to change as more studies are performed and improvements in existing studies are made.

Peer reviewed and formally published LA County antibody seroprevalence study

Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2–Specific Antibodies in Los Angeles County, California

This population epidemiology study investigates the prevalence of IgG and IgM antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in Los Angeles County, California, as a marker of both active and past infections.

Opinion | New Data Suggest the Coronavirus Isn’t as Deadly as We Thought

A study finds 50 to 85 times as many infections as known cases—meaning a far lower fatality rate.

According to the following article regarding military COVID-19 cases, it appears that the generally healthy military population had a hospitalization / serious-case rate of about 2.8% and a mortality rate of about 0.09% (3/(6221*0.55). Again these figures are for a generally healthy military population that does not have any part of it’s population on hospice and otherwise in a category of pre-active dying / old-age. The military population may contain some with life-long asthma preconditions but relatively few of the other COVID-19 high risk groups. Data for this analysis is taken from the following article.

Defense secretary says coronavirus vaccine will be available within months, but experts skeptical

Pentagon leaders expressed strong confidence Thursday that a coronavirus vaccine will be available by January, and possibly as early as this fall — claims…

Also see Daily Reporting Is Misleading.

If the number of reported deaths are inflated as suspected, the mortality rates stated above need to be adjusted downward accordingly.

Antibody Test Information.

The Abbott Antibody Rapid Test Kit appears to have excellent specificity.

Only tests with very high specificity are accurate enough to ensure a false positive result does not occur. A false positive could occur from an antibody to a virus besides SARS-CoV-2 triggering a positive. This could falsely lead someone to believe that they are immune to SARS-CoV-2 / COVID19 when really they are immune to some other virus. High specificity means that the test ONLY detects antibodies to the specific virus that the test targets.

The simple rapid test kits lack sensitivity to find antibodies in people who recovered long ago from their infection (>20 to 90 days). So a negative result from these rapid test kits does NOT mean that antibodies do not exist in the blood sample. It does mean that there were insufficient quantities to detect with that inexpensive test. A lab grade, high sensitivity, “titrate”, quantitative test is needed to test for older infections. For example, if you think some flu symptoms you had 2, 3, or more months ago may have been COVID19, the rapid test kit finger-prick test will probably not detect it. You will need a higher lab grade “titrate” quantitative high-sensitivity test.

And again, to ensure that the test is highly SPECIFIC only to SARS-CoV-2 / COVID19, the test must have very high specificity.

COVID-19 Testing Project

We are a multidisciplinary team of researchers and physicians at UCSF, UC Berkeley, Chan Zuckerberg Biohub, and Innovative Genomics Institute.

Assure COVID-19 IgG/IgM Rapid Test Device – Assure Tech. (Hangzhou Co., Ltd)
“Positive results may be due to past or present infection with non-SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus strains, such as coronavirus HKU1, NL63, OC43, or 229E”.
Is this the same as the BD Biomedomics?

Evaluation of nine commercial SARS-CoV-2 immunoassays

Due to urgency and demand, numerous severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) immunoassays are rapidly being developed and placed on the market with limited validation on clinical samples. Thorough validation of serological tests are required to facilitate their use in the accurat…

Side by side comparison of three fully automated SARS-CoV-2 antibody assays with a focus on specificity

Background In the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, numerous new serological test systems for the detection of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies have become available quickly. However, the clinical performance of many of them is still insufficiently described. Therefore we compared three commercial, CE-mar…

Global IgM or IgG Antibody Rapid Test Kits Market Research Report with Opportunities and Strategies to Boost Growth- COVID-19 Impact and Recovery : ReportsnReports

[126 Pages Report] Check for Discount on Global IgM or IgG Antibody Rapid Test Kits Market Research Report with Opportunities and Strategies to Boost Growth- COVID-19 Impact and Recovery report by Maia Research. …

Test performance evaluation of SARS-CoV-2 serological assays

Serological tests are crucial tools for assessments of SARS-CoV-2 exposure, infection and potential immunity. Their appropriate use and interpretation require accurate assay performance data.We conducted an evaluation of 10 lateral flow assays (LFAs) …

Side by side comparison of three fully automated SARS-CoV-2 antibody assays with a focus on specificity

Background: In the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, numerous new serological test systems for the detection of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies have become available quickly. However, the clinical performance of many of them is still insufficiently described. Therefore we compared three commercial, CE-ma…

Covid-19 antibody tests face a very specific problem

With the prevalence of coronavirus infection running at about 5%, test manufacturers and regulators alike will have to guard against false positives.

Why Do We Need Antibody Tests for COVID-19 and How to Interpret Test Results

Why Do We Need Antibody Tests for COVID-19?Diagnosing viral infections currently relies on two major methodologies: Reverse Transcription Quantitative Polymerase Chain Reaction (RT-qPCR) and serolo…

Antibody tests may hold clues to COVID-19 exposure, immunity—but it’s complicated

Scientists are sifting through which of dozens of serologic tests are going to be useful for assessing how many people have been exposed. But only one test has been reviewed by the FDA.

How Do the COVID-19 Coronavirus Tests Work?

Tests may use two methods to detect SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes COVID-19. Genomic or molecular detection confirms the presence of viral DNA. The immunoglobulin or serology tests can tell whether or not you have been exposed to coronavirus, but not whether you are currently infected. Both tests admi…

COVID-19 Serology Testing Explained | ASM.org

An in-depth look at the principles of COVID-19 serology testing – protocols, platforms, authorization guidelines, interpretation of results, accuracy concerns and overcoming roadblocks to success.

ELISA method may be more sensitive than CLIA method in detecting old infections. Certainly the finger-prick lateral flow rapid test kits are not sensitive enough to detect older infections (> 30 to 60 days).

Comparing Assay Performance of ELISA and Chemiluminescence Immunoassay in Detecting Antibodies to Hepatitis B Surface Antigen

Antibodies to Hepatitis B surface Antigen (Anti-HBs) levels are measured as markers for immune response to vaccination and in decision making for post-exposure prophylaxis against Hepatitis-B. Several immunoassay formats are used to measure Anti-HBs, …

The study below appears focused on “near date of infection” results. Need a study that is “several months after infection”.

Diagnostic Accuracy of an Automated Chemiluminescent Immunoassay for anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgM and IgG Antibodies: An Italian Experience – PubMed

A pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has been spreading throughout the world. Though molecular diagnostic tests are the gold standard for COVID-19, serological testing is emerging as a potential surveillance tool, in…

Clinical Validity of Serum Antibodies to SARS-CoV-2: A Case–Control Study: Annals of Internal Medicine: Vol 0, No 0

Background: The clinical utility of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) antibodies remains undefined. Objective: To determine the clinical validity and utility of SARS-CoV-…

SARS-CoV-2 Immunoassay | Abbott Core Laboratory

Abbott is helping to fight the COVID-19 crisis by developing an assay for the detection of the SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibody—designed and trusted by leading Abbott Scientists.

Quest has good info on their site and may be among the best?

It appears their Abbott test is a CLIA type which may not be as sensitive as an ELISA type test (see above). They also have tests from 2 other manufacturers. Still researching.

Covid19 information for Patients : Information For Patients

Quest Diagnostics helps patients find answers during the COVID-19 crisis through our work in active infection testing and immune response antibody testing.

The Solution appears to use the Abbott test which has low false positives (good specificity), but perhaps less than best sensitivity such that it cannot detect recovered infections that occurred more than 1 or 2 months prior.

COVID19 Antibody Testing – The Solution

The Solution is now offering an FDA-cleared COVID-19 Antibody Test. This test will help our customers gain insight into whether they have been exposed to the virus and recommendations for next steps in the fight against it.

While this test data is not well reviewed, the average fatality rate from all these test results is about 0.33% which correlates to the better reviewed but narrower statistical sample data shown near the top of this page.

PCR and Serological Studies

Sheet1 Study/Release,Test Type,Infected (%),Undercount/
Ascertainment Bias,Regional
IFR (%),Population,Link
London HCW Screening,PCR,7.10,35.00,0.54,London Health Care Workers,<a href=

Seroprevalence of Antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in 10 Sites in the United States, 2020

This cross-sectional study estimates the prevalence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 antibodies in convenience samples from 10 geographic sites in the United States.

In a small population of generally healthy navy sailors, as of mid-May, 1 death occurred in 1156 PCR viral presence test confirmed positive cases, resulting in a mortality rate of 0.087%. If another death occurs, that would double to 0.17%. Again, keeping in mind Dr. Fauci’s stated rate of 0.1% for seasonal flu across all population including those at higher risk. While asthma is considered a risk factor, it is not known if the navy screens out asthma sufferers and personnel with potential risk factors. But we do know that good general health is a screen for active duty.

COVID-19 pandemic on USS Theodore Roosevelt – Wikipedia

USS Theodore Roosevelt in October 2019

CDC: Coronavirus fatality rate could be as low as 0.26%

Earlier estimates pegged the rate significantly higher

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a virus (more specifically, a coronavirus) identified as the cause of an outbreak of respiratory illness first detected in Wuhan, China.

Immune System Function

Some great introductory material on the immune system. In about an hour, many people could develop a good fundamental understanding of the immune system.

B lymphocytes (B cells) (video) | Immunology | Khan Academy

Overview of B cells (B lymphocytes) and how they are activated and produce antibodies.

After reviewing all of the Khan videos, the following videos will strengthen the fundamentals and introduce additional levels of knowledge.

The Immune System • iBiology

Ira Mellman explains that the immune system is made up of specialized cells that protect us from the huge number and diverstiy of pathogens we encounter.

Basic Immunology: Nuts and Bolts of the Immune System

More in the

iBiology Techniques

Free biology talks by the world’s leading scientists that show the process of science and the wonders of discovery. Please visit our other YouTube channels f…

23.2. Adaptive Immune Response – Concepts of Biology – 1st Canadian Edition

Unit 4: Animal Structure and Function

11.7E: Making Memory B Cells

Memory B cells are a B cell sub-type that are formed following primary infection.

If Antibodies Fall Short of Covid-19 Immunity, Call the T-cells

Not all hope is lost if antibody responses are not enough to generate Covid-19 immunity. There is still another branch of the adaptive immune system called T-cells. And good news is that SARS-CoV-2 provokes T-cells.

Influenza Virus Infection – Carolyn Bertozzi (Berkeley/HHMI)

Anti-apoptosis and cell survival: A review

Type I programmed cell death (PCD) or apoptosis is critical for cellular self-destruction for a variety of processes such as development or the preven…

Plasma cell and memory B cell differentiation from the germinal center

Germinal centers (GCs) form in secondary lymphoid tissues in response to antigenic challenge and are the site of somatic hypermutation, generating GC …

A compact vocabulary of paratope-epitope interactions enables predictability of antibody-antigen binding

Antibody-antigen binding relies on the specific interaction of amino acids at the paratope-epitope interface. It has been a long-standing question of whether antibody-antigen binding is predictable. A fundamental premise for the predictability of paratope-epitope interactions is the existence of str…

Origins of specificity and affinity in antibody–protein interactions

Natural antibodies perform their biological function by recognizing all sorts of foreign proteins—seemly unlimited structural and sequence diversities in antigens can be recognized by a limited repertoire of antibodies, for which the sequence …

Specificity and Cross-Reactivity – Immunology and Evolution of Infectious Disease – NCBI Bookshelf

In this chapter, I describe the attributes of host and parasite molecules that determine immune recognition. Two terms frequently arise in discussions of recognition. Specificity measures the degree to which the immune system differentiates between different antigens. Cross-reactivity measures the e…

Back To Some Simple Statements From WHO

The WHO’s EXTREMELY MISLEADING statement:

“There is currently no evidence that people who have recovered from COVID-19 and have antibodies are protected from a second infection” – 24 April 2020

When antibodies and specific B / T cells are present, it would be the rare case that some level of immunity is not exhibited.

For the WHO to say there is NO EVIDENCE ignores all data we have with viruses in general, the general function of antibodies and the immune system, various related coronaviruses, SARS-CoV-1, and MERS related viruses.

Antibodies are what enable someone to recover and many people have had such recoveries. If people still have antibodies well after having recovered, it would be exceptionally odd to think that those antibodies will not perform some immune response as they did in during recovery from the first infection.

The WHO statement which has been quoted vociferously is horribly misleading and creates concern about WHO’s ability to communicate accurately.

Additionally, if there was no immunity, then we would expect the millions of recovered in the US alone to be complaining of re-infections, rather than a small number of re-infections that have been documented. These small number of re-infections that have occurred appear to be statistical outliers – rare occurrences.

Also See: Immunology

“Immunity passports” in the context of COVID-19

Scientific Brief

New data suggest people aren’t getting reinfected with the coronavirus

People who recover from COVID-19 but later test positive again for the coronavirus don’t carry infectious virus, a study finds.

Explainer: South Korean findings suggest ‘reinfected’ coronavirus cases are false positives

South Korean health authorities raised new concerns about the novel coronavirus after reporting last month that dozens of patients who had recovered from the illness later tested positive again.

Jung Eun-Kyeong, Director of the Korean Centers for Disease Control & Prevention
Findings from investigation and analysis of re-positive cases

SARS antibodies can block COVID-19 infection: study

An antibody from a patient who recovered from SARS has been shown to block COVID-19 infection in a laboratory setting, researchers said Monday in another pot…

While not able to find the underlying study at this time, this is an interesting avenue to research further. If true, it could help explain why some Asian countries which were more exposed to SARS-CoV-1 appear to possibly be more resistant to SARS-CoV-2. This is being watched.

Was this the underlying study or is there another?

COVID-19 Research in Brief: 11 April to 17 April, 2020

All the research you need to know to keep on top of how science is responding to the COVID-19 pandemic

A human monoclonal antibody blocking SARS-CoV-2 infection

Vaccines and targeted therapeutics for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) are currently lacking. Here, the authors report a human monoclonal antibody capable of neutralizing both authentic SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 by targeting a common epitope.

The body’s COVID-19 weapon could be cells that mysteriously remember the virus for decades

“We know that, somehow, not all immune memory is created equal,” said Shane Crotty, a virologist and vaccine scientist.

Is SARS-CoV-2 similar enough to SARS-1 that immune response is of similar behavior? Probably true, so potentially useful to apply SARS-1 learning.

Long-Term Persistence of IgG Antibodies in SARS-CoV Infected Healthcare Workers

BACKGROUND: The ongoing worldwide outbreak of the 2019-nCoV is markedly similar to the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak 17 years ago. During the 2002-2003 SARS outbreak, healthcare workers formed a special population of patients. Although virus-specific IgG play important roles in v…